Delivering a Just Transition in Northern Ireland: Climate Governance in a Post-Conflict Society
Natalie Merrick
Northern Ireland’s just transition to net zero is unfolding within one of the most institutionally complex environments in Europe. Unlike other UK jurisdictions, Northern Ireland’s governance operates through a combination of post-conflict devolved institutions established under the Good Friday Agreement and post-Brexit regulatory arrangements under the Windsor Framework. At the same time, global energy instability from recent geopolitical shocks to fossil fuel markets has intensified pressures around affordability, energy security, and inflation. While many discussions of just transition focus primarily on managing the phase-out of fossil fuels and protecting affected workers, Northern Ireland presents a different context. There remains a reliance on oil-based heating systems, high levels of fuel poverty, and an emissions profile dominated by agriculture which accounts for 31.4 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions. This creates distinctive challenges for rural livelihoods and agriculture as a central component of local economic and cultural identity.
This policy brief adopts the approach to just transition reflected in the International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) Guidelines for a Just Transition, where the transition to a low-carbon economy is understood as requiring emissions reduction, and also decent work, social dialogue, inclusion, poverty reduction and the fair distribution of costs and benefits of the transition. In Northern Ireland, this perspective is particularly relevant because climate policy intersects with governance shaped by the constitutional requirements of a post-conflict power-sharing system and the requirement for the establishment of a Just Transition Commission in April 2026, as part of the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland (2022)). The Commission will oversee the delivery of the statutory just transition principle by ensuring that decarbonisation is pursued through social dialogue, protection of livelihoods, procedural fairness and equitable distribution of transition costs and benefits.
